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Diary: the history of bets made with justifications

A good justified betting history serves to make better choices when we find identical games in the future.

At the beginning, it should keep all the information it can, so that later on it can have many analysis options to do with these results.

The Law of Compensation

I had to try everything to be sure I'm naturally more gifted in the probability and Over/Under 2,5 markets.

High and low odds

Chronicle by Paulo Rebelo published at the Penthouse Portugal Magazine of July 2012: "This is a myth in sport betting."

Movements in several markets

This is a chronicle written by Paulo Rebelo in the Penthouse Portugal magazine in the 2012 November issue intitulated "If the match is tied, the odd tends to drop towards the end of the match".

Leverage in Sports Betting

Leverage is a term used in finances related with CFD’s (Contracts for Difference) and loans.
When trading with CFD’s we are trading over the difference in the variation, which allows us to bet a lot more money than we actually have available in bank.

Sports bet trading based solely on a technical analysis

If in live trading we can predict fast odd rises and falls, in pre-match we can also predict variations in matches with low uncertainty, just by analysing the market.

Time to enter the pre-live Trading markets

There is not an exact time to have a fully formed market. Depending on the match, the market can be formed only on the match day itself or taking shape with over 7 days before kickoff.

The are different ways to take advantage of the market formation moments to do some pre live Trading.

Trading on the favourite, final minutes, drawn match

Trading with the favourite when the match is drawn and coming to a close can be quite hard.
Sometimes it is better to do nothing.

Be careful with end of season bets

Be careful when placing bets on teams that already mathematically champions! It will not be the same team that is playing in European competition final or national cup knock outs. The motivation, match intensity and the possibility of the coach resting players turn these games into completely different affairs!

Stocks and Betting

Paulo Rebelo's chronicle for the magazine Remate ("O Jogo" newspaper supplement) - 28 April 2012

"At a betting exchange I don't have to identify the winning bet, I only have to predict the way that the bet will swing."
 
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