High and low odds
Chronicle by Paulo Rebelo published at the Penthouse Portugal Magazine of July 2012: "This is a myth in sport betting."
A bet is of good value if the price (odd) you get is high, therefore, it's not worth risking our money for a small price (that is, low odds). This is false!
Fellow reader, write this down 100 times: “A bet is of good value if the price we get is higher than the probability of occurrence of the event, regardeless of whether it is a high or low odd”. The misconception presented earlier is common and has to do with a misinterpretation of the concept of expected value of a bet.
É It's true that we lose all of our money when we lose a bet, either with high or low odds. It's also true that if we win the bet, we'll get a higher profit if the odd is high. Joining the two premises, a high odd bet is of more value than a low odd one. But this isn't so, as we also need to take into account that we are more likely to win a low odd bet than a high odd one. Therefore, in theory, if we place 100 bets with low odds and another 100 with high odds, we'll win more money every time we win a bet with high odds, but despite winning less each time with lower odds, we'll win more bets. Therefore, it doesn't matter whether we bet with high or low odds, you should win or lose about the same in the long run. I insist that what makes the difference in terms of profitability is the concept of good odd value and it doesn't matter if the odd is high or low.
Sure enough, everyone has different risk profiles, so some are more comfortable with low odds, because they don't lose as many bets, while others prefer high odds, because they win more money when they get it right. My advice on this is that, unlike specialization on a certain sport, a market or a league, you should make a progressive effort to find value in high and low odds that don't fit your risk profile, since you'll become a more complete punter.
Let me use this opportunity to advice you against a common mistake: choosing several low odd bets to get a high odd multiple bet. You should never include in a multiple a bet which you wouldn't put money on a single bet. Once again, there is the illusion that a higher odd is of good value. That just isn't true!
Although you'll get a higher price, you'll also have a much higher risk, so the expected value is the same. Therefore, if a low odd bet is of negative expected value, to the point you wouldn't put money into it in a single bet, combining it with other bets in a multiple will not make its expected value positive.
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