If in live trading we can predict fast odd rises and falls, in pre-match we can also predict variations in matches with low uncertainty, just by analysing the market.
It's possible to win money in bet trading based solely on a technical analysis, without mastering the qualitative analysis of the sport. The technical analysis of the market is enough to identify and take advantage of fast odd rises and falls of the market in live events!
Example of a fast rise:
- A non-favourite team (initial odd between 1,7 and 2,0) begins dominating the match and plays offensively;
- We know that as time goes by and the score remains 0-0 the odd of the favourite team will tend to rise, but in this case the odd falls due to this initial pressure;
- After a few minutes the odd will be too low;
- We know the odd, sooner or later, will rise to the expected value, usually in a fast and violent way! That is, through a fast rise of the odd.
- It's possible to identify this rise through an analysis of the market indicators!
Example of a fast fall:
- In an initially balanced match, one team is winning by 1-0 10' before the end of the match;
- At this point the team is disadvantage starts to attack intensely and creates many goal opportunities, playing far better, so a goal is imminent;
- In cases like this, the odd of the team in advantage, which was at, let's say, 1.40, doesn't drop linearly as time goes by, as expected, but stabilizes at 1.40, because of the pressure of the opponent;
- We know that the odd of the team in advantage will have to drop to near 1.01 ;
- If the odd doesn't drop as time goes by, sooner or later it will suddenly drop to the expected value.
- This fast drop is also predictable by an analysis of the market indicators!
But before the beginning of the match it's also possible to take advantage of this and win money in pre-event trading based on an analysis of the market! That's what I have done in the first 3 years of my professional trader career and what has allowed me to make a living out of sports bets.
I also analysed sports news, but my main tool was the market analysis. I preferred markets with low uncertainty, that is, not much affected by news, in which the market analysis worked better to help me decide when to get in and out of the market.
How to make a market analysis?
To put it simply, let me just say that in live trading the most reliable technical analysis is the speed with which the bets are bought and sold and the volume variation of the bets being placed, which allow me to understand if the odds are going to rise or fall quickly.
In pre-event trading the technical analysis is base mostly on the weight of money and the last odd price matched.