This site uses cookies. When you browse the site you are consenting to its use. Know more.

Movements in several markets

Movements in several markets
This is a chronicle written by Paulo Rebelo in the Penthouse Portugal magazine in the 2012 November issue intitulated "If the match is tied, the odd tends to drop towards the end of the match".
by Paulo Rebelo   |   comments 0
Wednesday, March 2 2016

A sport betting exchange will allow you to win money with the variation of the value of an odd. To be in favour of the market we need to know how the value of an odd varies throughout a football match within the several markets we can bet on.

Movements of the 1x2 Market:

The market in which we can bet on the win of the home or away team or in a draw is the most popular and, therefore, the one with the most money exchanged throughout a match.

General rule:

In a balanced match, the general rule is that if there are no goals, the odd of the current score will drop continuously as time goes by. The odds of the rest of the results, on the contrary, will rise.

  • That is, if the match is tied, the draw odd will drop continuously if no goals are scored!
  • If Benfica is winning, the odd of Benfica will drop if no goals are scored.
  • If the match is tied, the odds of Benfica and FC Porto will rise as time goes by with no goals scored.


If Benfica is winning, a goal by this team will cause the odd to drop faster. On the contrary, if Benfica concedes a goal the odd will rise.

Unbalanced matches:

When there is a clear favourite to win the match the rules are somewhat different. If Manchester City faces a team from the 3rd division in a cup match, if the match is tied, the odd of the favourite will not rise continuously towards the end. In the last 15' it may even drop for a while, since a goal by the underdog will not allow much time to turn the score around.

If Barcelona is winning by a 1 goal difference against the last of the league the odd of the favourite will not drop continuously towards the end. It should drop for a while, since as in the previous case, there won't be much time for Barcelona to recover the lead.

Movements of the Over/Under markets

This is another popular market. It consists on predicting if the match will end with Over or Under X goals. The general rule is simple: the odd of the X goals will drop towards the end of the match. If a goal is scored the odd will drop. On the contrary, the odd of the Over X goals will rise towards the end or drop if a goal is scored.

Movements of the correct score

Betting on the correct score is the speciality of some players. However, it's not necessary to guess the final score, you just have to take advantage of the tendency of the odds!

These are the tendencies of a variety of scores throughout the match:

Current score:
The odd of the current score will drop towards the end of the match.

Current score at half-time:
At half-time, the odd of the current score should be about half of the value of the 0-0 in the beginning of the match. e.g.: if when the match started the odd of the 0-0 was @10, the odd of the 2-0 at half-time, if that is the current score, should be under @5.

movimentos dos varios mercados

Closest scores:
If a match is tied 0-0, the closest scores are 0-1 and 1-0. If the score is 2-0, the closest scores are 3-0 and 2-1.
The odds of the closest scores tend to drop to about half of the initial odds at half-time and continue to drop until around minute 60', at which point it should invert the tendency.

1-1 score:
During the first half, if the score is 0-0, the odd of the 1-1 won't vary that much. It usually only rises in the second half.

Other scores:
The odds of the other scores usually rise throughout the match (until a goal is scored).


Comment (0)