Derby County Leeds United betting prediction

Derby logo
Derby
  • 1 - 3
  • Played
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Leeds

Betting suggestion:

The most likely scenario for this match is that there will be several goals. Although a relatively balanced encounter is expected, both Leeds United and Derby County tend to play open games with plenty of chances. Therefore, everything points to a fast-paced match, with space for the attacks to break free and overcome the defences throughout the 90 minutes.
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Preview
Derby and Leeds face at Pride Park Stadium, in a match for this stage of the FA Cup (Round 3). In the last 3 years these teams met twice: the earliest head‑to‑head was played on 29‑12‑2024 and ended in a (0‑1) win by Leeds United, and the latest on 07‑12‑2024, which ended in a (2‑0) win by Leeds United. Both teams register significant differences between home and away results, so the home/away factor is worth atention.

Analysis Derby

The home team plays its first match in this edition of the FA Cup with the intention of using the home advantage to get a positive result. This is a team that, oddly enough, has had better results in away matches than at home, since in the last 30 matches they register 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in away matches; against 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses at their stadium. They come to this match after a home loss against Wrexham by (1‑2). Derby has won 4, tied 3 and lost 3 of the last 10 home matches. They haven't been very strong defensively, since they have suffered goals in 8 of the last 10 matches, but their offense has scored frequently, since they have scored goals in all of the last 10 matches. In their home matches there is a tendency for few goals, since 11 of the last 25 matches have ended with Under 1,5 goals and 19 out of 25 have ended with Under 2,5 goals. They have conceded the first goal in 5 of their 15 matches, and have never been able to turn the score around.

Derby County come into this match after a 2-1 defeat at home to Wrexham in the Championship: the team's only goal was scored by Ben Brereton Díaz. The home side usually line up in a 3-4-3 formation, with Rhian Brewster, Patrick Agyemang and Ben Brereton Díaz posing the main threats to the opposition defence. When they attack, they usually do so down the right wing, taking advantage of the depth offered by full-back Joe Ward. David Ozoh and Carlton Morris are out of this match due to physical problems.

Confirmed Lineup: Jacob Widell Zetterström, Craig Forsyth, Danny Batth, Sondre Langås, Lewis Travis, Oscar Fraulo, Joe Ward, Bobby Clark, Lars-Jørgen Salvesen, Ben Brereton Díaz, Corey Blackett-Taylor.
Coach: J. Eustace.

Analysis Leeds

The team plays its first match in this edition of the FA Cup with the intention of getting a positive away result. This is a team that usually makes good use of the home advantage, stronger with the help of its supporters, since in the last 30 matches they register 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in away matches, with 15 goals scored and 26 conceded; against 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses at their stadium, with 32 goals scored and 16 conceded. In their last match, for the Premier League, they got an away loss against Newcastle United by (4‑3). In the last 10 away matches Leeds has won 1, tied 3 and lost 6. Defensive consistency hasn’t been their best feature, as they have conceded goals in 9 of the last 10 matches, but their offense has scored consistently, as they have scored goals in 9 of the last 10 matches. In 15 matches, they have conceded the first goal 7 times and have never been able to turn the score around.

Leeds United come into this match on the back of a 4-3 away win at Newcastle in the Premier League, with Brenden Aaronson (2) and Dominic Calvert-Lewin scoring the goals. For this clash, Daniel Farke's side are expected to stick with their usual 3-5-2 formation, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Noah Okafor forming the attacking duo. The strategy is to exploit the right flank, where James Justin stands out for his depth and the way he unbalances opponents with his attacking runs. All players are available for this match.

Confirmed Lineup: Karl Darlow, Sebastiaan Bornauw, Jaka Bijol, Ilia Gruev, Ethan Ampadu, Ao Tanaka, Noah Okafor, Jack Harrison, Lukas Nmecha, Wilfried Gnonto, Joël Piroe.
Coach: J. Marsch.

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Frequently asked questions

The tip and bet suggestion for the Derby vs Leeds match, on 11 January 2026, of the preview written by the editors of Online Betting Academy, goes to: Handicap, Over 2 goals ⇒ bet available on bet365.

The Derby vs Leeds on 11 January 2026 will be played at Derby, Pride Park Stadium.

The most voted bet by tipsters at Online Betting Academy, for the Derby Leeds match, on the "match odds" market, was a win by Leeds at with 83% of the tips.

 

FA Cup - 2025/2026

  • 98% 840 / 861 Games

  • Home team wins 48.57%
  • Draws 15.12%
  • Away team wins 36.31%
  • Over 1.5 82.98%
  • Over 2.5 62.02%
  • Over 3.5 41.31%
  • Goals 2725
  • Goals /match 3.24
  • Goals /match home 1.8
  • Goals /match away 1.44
  • Both teams score 57.26%
  • Goals after 80' 8.84%
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