Unlike football, in sports played for points, as well as in horse racing, the numbers are more predictable because the stats are more reliable and it's easier to find patterns. In Football matches, on the other hand, we depend on goals, which don't happen that often.
Almost everybody I know started by betting on football matches, for 2 main reasons: it's the most popular sport and, therefore, it's the sport they know best. A question then arises: Is it easier to bet on football matches than on other sports?
This is a sport in which there are 3 possible outcomes in the main market: win, draw or loss. That on its own is enough to see this is a complex sport to bet on, since in most sports there are only 2 possible outcomes, as in Tennis, for example. But if we analyse it carefully, we'll realize it's much more complex to bet on football matches than any other sport. Why is that so? Because of the pourpouse of any match: goals.
In other sports, like basketball or volleyball, we have points, many of them per match. The teams make the same moves again and again in a match, thousands of times in a season, therefore, numbers stack up and can be used to make reliable predictions, which means it's easier to find fair odds in these sports.
In sports like American football, baseball and tennis this is evident, but even in horse racing it's easier to make predictions and find fair odds. Many may be surprised by this, but it's true: in horse racing there aren't as many variables to consider as in football. Numbers are more reliable and the patterns repeat more often than in football, which is why many people prefer to bet on other sports.
In football predictions are made around goals, which may come when we least expect them or, on the contrary, good goal chances may be wasted again and again, since many factors may have its influence, even outside factors.
As you can see, there are many things to consider in a football match, so it's not easy to work with the numbers and make good predictions and find patterns.
- Teams with creative players are more likely to score;
- Teams that present defensive strategies are usually dominated and pressured by the opponents, so they tend to commit more fouls.
Many things may vary from team to team, but these numbers and stats, available in many sites, allow us to find patterns and fair odds.
However, even with fair odds, at the end of the day luck may confirm or counter the best prediction.
The problem is that it's harder to make money in the long term, since the odds are usually low, around @1.60 and @2.10. To try to manage a bankroll with these kinds of odds is no easy task, since even a short term negative sequence may lead to ruin.
Therefore, a good bankroll management is key to make money in the long term.
However, despite being one of the hardest sports to predict, there are often good betting opportunities if you have what it takes to find them.
Good odds are harder to find in the main leagues, since bookmakers have access to a lot of information and therefore usually offer fair odds. But in less popular leagues you may have an advantage if you have access to local information, which will allow you to be one step ahead of bookmakers and find good betting opportunities.
It's not easy. It takes time, determination and cold blood to find success in this sport. But if you think you have what it takes, if you aren't afraid to work hard and if you are able to find good betting opportunities in football matches, congratulations, since not that many people have that ability. Most people lose money or in the long term lose and win about the same amount.
As a final tip, pay attention to tips from professionals and study the match stats, but at the end of the day try to draw your own conclusions and make your own predictions.