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Preview:
This Friday, Chile and Bolivia face at the Estadio Nacional, in Santiago, in a match for the 3rd round of the group stage of Copa America 2015. This is a face to face between 1st and 2nd of the group, with Chile ahead of Bolivia due to the goal difference. Since the other group match ends before this one begins, both teams will start the match knowing which score they need to qualify, which may be important, since a tie may be enough for both teams. Chile hasn’t lost any of the last 8 matches against Bolivia. Their last loss was in 2002, in Bolivia.

Analysis of Chile

Chile has never won this competition before, so they wish to win for the first time, taking advantage of their best generation of football players ever and the fact that they host the event. This team is almost the same that has qualified for the last World cup. In Brazil, they reached the knockout rounds, but were eliminated by the host in a penalty shootout.
 
They have a lot of technical quality and the ability to make fast transitions. One of the team’s problems is that most of the players are short, which is a problem in free kicks and corners, for example, but they make up for that with good positioning. They have played well so far. In the first match they were dominant against Ecuador and took advantage of the goal opportunities they created, winning by 2-0. In the last match, against Mexico, they had more ball possession and created the best goal chances, but didn’t resist and allowed the equalizer, drawing with a 3-3 final score. They now wish to win this last group match to guarantee qualification in any scenario.


Confirmed Lineup: C. Bravo, G. Jara, G. Medel, M. Isla, J. Beausejour, C. Aránguiz, A. Vidal, M. Díaz, J. Valdivia, A. Sánchez, E. Vargas.
Coach: J. Sampaoli.

Analysis of Bolivia

Bolivia has been considered by many the weakest team of the tournament, but they are collectively strong and usually make good use of the home advantage. In qualification stages, they make use of the countries altitude and take advantage of the opponent’s physical problems, winning important home points. Therefore, their only win in the tournament was in the 1963 edition, played in Bolivia. They also reached the final in 1997, but lost against Brazil. In the last 5 editions of the Copa America, they never got through the group stage, but this year they have done better and have good chances of qualifying.
 
In its debut, Bolivia had a poor exhibition against Mexico, but the opponent was also weak, so the match ended in a goalless draw. But in the second round they faced Ecuador and have done a lot better. The opponent had more ball possession and put Bolivia under a lot of offensive pressure. But Bolivia managed to resist and took advantage of many mistakes by Ecuador to get a 3 goal advantage before halftime. In the second half they decided to defend the lead, so Ecuador attacked even more. However, the 2 goals they managed to score weren’t enough to even get a draw. They now wish to at least tie against Chile and hope that will be enough to qualify.


Confirmed Lineup: R. Quiñónez, R. Raldes, E. Rodríguez, C. Coimbra, A. Morales, P. Escobar, M. Smedberg-Dalence, A. Chumacero, W. Veizaga, M. Martins, R. Pedriel.
Coach: M. Soria.

Betting suggestion:

Although they face the hosts of the event, who need to win, Bolivia has enough offensive quality to create goal opportunities and score, mostly through free-kicks and corners, Chile’s weak spot. On the other hand, the home team is offensively very strong, so the most likely scenario is that both teams will score at least a goal.

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Copa America - 2015 Chile

  • 100% 26 / 26 Games

  • Home team wins 57.69%
  • Draws 19.23%
  • Away team wins 23.08%
  • Over 1.5 53.85%
  • Over 2.5 38.46%
  • Over 3.5 23.08%
  • Goals 59
  • Goals /match 2.27
  • Goals /match home 1.46
  • Goals /match away 0.81
  • Both teams score 42.31%
  • Goals after 80' 16.95%
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