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Mainz 05 VS Freiburg


Preview
Mainz 05 and Freiburg meet at Coface Arena, in a match for the 30th round of the Bundesliga. Freiburg got a home win by (2‑1), in the last league head‑to‑head, played in 25‑11‑2017. At this stadium, the head‑to‑head history favours the home team, since they have a record of 2 wins and 1 draw in the last 3 matches. Sure enough, the last time these teams met at this stadium, on 19‑11‑2016, in a match for the Bundesliga, Mainz 05 won by (4‑2). The goals of the match were scored by N. Bungert (15' ), Y. Mallı (20' ), S. Bell (82' ) and K. Onisiwo (90' ), for Mainz 05, and by V. Grifo (67' ) and N. Petersen (85' ), for Freiburg. In this match the home advantage may play an important role, as both teams present significant differences between home and away performances.

Analysis of Mainz 05

The home team is currently in the 16th position of the league, with 27 points won, after 6 wins, 9 draws and 14 losses. In the penultimate match, they tied in a home match against Borussia M'gladbach, by (0‑0). In the last match, they tied in an away match against Köln, by (1‑1). This is a team that is often stronger at home, with the help of its supporters, so they usually make good use of the home advantage, since in the last 30 matches they register 1 win, 6 draws and 8 losses in away matches; against 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses at their stadium. For the league, Mainz 05 won 12 points out of 30 possible points, after 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in the last 10 home matches. In their home league matches the most frequent result at half‑time was the 0‑0 (5 out of 14 matches). They haven't been very strong defensively, since they have suffered goals in 7 of the last 10 matches for this competition. In their home matches for this competition there is a tendency for few goals, since 9 of the last 14 matches have ended with Under 2,5 goals. They haven't been able to score the first goal. In fact, they have only opened up the score in 7 of the last 29 matches for the Bundesliga, they have reached half‑time in advantage in 3 of those 7 matches and have held on to the lead in 4. They have conceded the first goal in 20 of their 29 matches for this competition, and have only turned the score around in 2.

For this final stretch of the competition Mainz has as main objective to move away from the last positions, because at the moment it is going to the playoffs that can avoid the relegation. It is worth noting that there are already six rounds without victories in the championship. Another important fact is that playing at home the team has been alternating mainly between victories and defeats, because up to now it registers five wins, six defeats and still three draws, demonstrating in this way that lost in the majority. Another negative fact is the fact that it is leaving to be desired in both sectors, since it scores in average 1.14 goals and suffers in average 1.36 goals by duel.
For this match, coach Sandro Schwarz should choose the 4-3-3 tactical formation, aiming to create good plays for the middle and also attack from the sides, apart from not neglecting its most backward sector. In this tactical formation we can highlight the most centralized striker, that is, striker Emil Berggreen. Despite this, the main scorer is the striker Y. Muto with seven goals and one assist. For this match the team does not have Niko Bungert, injured, besides Giulio Donati who is suspended.

Confirmed Lineup: R. Adler, L. Balogun, D. Brosinski, A. Hack, A. Diallo, L. Öztunali, S. Serdar, P. De Blasis, J. Gbamin, D. Latza, R. Quaison.
Coach: S. Schwarz.

Analysis of Freiburg

The away team is currently in the 14th position of the league, with 30 points won, after 6 wins, 12 draws and 11 losses. In the penultimate match, they lost in an away match against Schalke 04, by (2‑0). In the last match, they lost in a home match against Wolfsburg, by (0‑2). This is a team that usually makes good use of the home advantage, stronger with the help of its supporters, since in the last 30 matches they register 1 win, 6 draws and 8 losses in away matches, with 16 goals scored and 36 conceded; against 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses at their stadium, with 15 goals scored and 16 conceded. In the last 10 away league matches Freiburg has a record of 1 win, 5 draws and 4 losses, so they have won 8 points out of 30 possible.

In this competition, they haven’t won any of the last 7 away matches. Defensive consistency hasn’t been their best feature, as they have conceded goals in 7 of the last 10 matches for this competition. This is a team that has had a hard time trying to score first. They have opened up the score in only 5 of the last 29 matches for the Bundesliga, they have reached half‑time in front in 3 of those 5 matches and have held on to the lead in 3. In 29 matches for this competition, they have conceded the first goal 18 times and have only turned the score around in 3. In the last 14 away matches for this competition there is 1 period that stands out: they have scored 5 of their 14 goals between minutes (61'‑75').

The team as well as its opponent is not going through a very comfortable situation, since it is currently only a position above its opponent of this clash, that is, it also struggles to move away from the last positions. It is worth noting that the team comes from three defeats, apart from the fact that it adds already six rounds without victories. 
Playing away from home it has found great difficulty in the search for the victory, because until it has only with one triumph, also with six draws and still with seven defeats, demonstrating that even with its alternations, ended up suffering the defeat in its majority. In these conditions it is leaving to be desired mainly defensively, because while it scores in average 1 goal, suffers in average 2.36 goals by clash. 
For this match coach Christian Streich should choose the 3-4-3 tactical formation. In this tactical formation we highlight the most advanced offensive reference, probably Nils Petersen, the team's top scorer with thirteen goals so far and with an assist. In this duel the coach can not count on Florian Niederlechner, Mike Frantz, Amir Abrashi, Yoric Ravet and Caleb Stanko, all injured.

Confirmed Lineup: A. Schwolow, M. Gulde, P. Stenzel, C. Söyüncü, C. Günter, R. Koch, M. Kempf, J. Haberer, N. Höfler, N. Petersen, L. Höler.
Coach: C. Streich.

Betting suggestion:

This should be a very interesting round because it faces rivals that fight against relegation. On one side of is Mainz, the team comes from a draw away from home against Koln and still believes it is possible to escape in these latter rounds. On the other hand is Freiburg that arrives of three defeats by the competition and will not be able to think about losing more, that is to say, it needs a quick reaction. Another important fact is that although the teams have to seek a positive result, both are not presenting great offensive quality, and the home factor can be decisive in this clash. Seen this and thinking with safety, opting for "Mainz - Draw No Bet" should be a good option.
NOTE: Statistical values limited to the matches in our database.

Markets
Match Odds 64 Place your bet
Freiburg 6%
4
Mainz 63%
2.3
The Draw 31%
3.39
Over/Under 2.5 goals 21 Place your bet
Under 2.5 Goals 43%
1.65
Over 2.5 Goals 57%
2.66
Half Time 6 Place your bet
Mainz 50%
3.1
The Draw 50%
2.02
Freiburg 0% 4.8
Over/Under 1.5 Goals 24 Place your bet
Over 1.5 Goals 83%
1.54
Under 1.5 Goals 17%
3
Over/Under 3.5 Goals 10 Place your bet
Over 3.5 Goals 20%
5.5
Under 3.5 Goals 80%
1.23
Over/Under 4.5 Goals 4 Place your bet
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
13.5
Under 4.5 Goals 75%
1.071
Over/Under 0.5 Goals 5 Place your bet
Over 0.5 Goals 100%
1.13
Under 0.5 Goals 0% 9
Over/Under 5.5 Goals 2 Place your bet
Under 5.5 Goals 50%
1.02
Over 5.5 Goals 50%
40
Over/Under 6.5 Goals 1 Place your bet
Over 6.5 Goals 100%
95
Under 6.5 Goals 0% 1.01
Both teams to Score? 18 Place your bet
Yes 78%
2.16
No 22%
1.91
Half With Most Goals 2 Place your bet
Tie 0% 3.25
2nd Half 50%
2.15
1st Half 50%
3.25
First Half Goals 1.5 4 Place your bet
Under 1.5 Goals 25%
1.33
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
3.65
First Half Goals 12 Place your bet
Over 0.5 Goals 67%
1.5
Under 0.5 Goals 33%
2.62
Note: On the graphics, the lay Tips were converted to Back on the other choices of that market.

Tips

Forum comments

 

Bundesliga - 2017/2018

  • 100% 306 / 306 Games

  • Home team wins 45.42%
  • Draws 27.12%
  • Away team wins 27.45%
  • Over 1.5 78.76%
  • Over 2.5 51.96%
  • Over 3.5 30.72%
  • Goals 855
  • Goals /match 2.79
  • Goals /match home 1.6
  • Goals /match away 1.19
  • Both teams score 54.9%
  • Goals after 80' 15.09%
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