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Topic: Zenit vs Benfica - UEFA Champions League 8th Finals 09/03/16 17:00  (Read 99 times)

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    Head-to-Head in the last 3 years
    Date   Home   Away
    Benfica 1-0 Zenit
    Zenit 1-0 Benfica
    Benfica 0-2 Zenit
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    Stats » UEFA Champions League Europe » Zenit vs Benfica

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    • Posts: 152104
      Analysis: Zenit vs Benfica (09 March 2016)
      « Reply #1 on: March 07 2016, 01:59 »

      Zenit São Petersburgo and Benfica meet at Stadion Petrovskij, in a 2nd leg match for the Liga dos Campeões (Oitavos de final). Benfica got a home win by (1‑0) in the previous 1st leg match. The head‑to‑head history of the last 3 years favours the home team, since in the last 3 matches they won 2, tied 0 and lost 1. Benfica registers significant differences between home and away results, so special attention is due to the home/away factor.

      Analysis of Zenit

      After the away loss in the 1st leg, the home team comes to this match with the hard task of having to recover from a 1 goals disadvantage and haven't scored any away goals in the first match. This is a team that usually maintains its competitive level in home and away matches, since in the last 30 matches they register 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in away matches, with 25 goals scored and 20 conceded; against 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses at their stadium, with 31 goals scored and 11 conceded. They come to this match after a away draw against Krasnodar by (0‑0). Zenit São Petersburgo has won 8, tied 2 and lost 0 of the last 10 home matches.

      They haven't been very strong defensively, since they have suffered goals in 5 of the last 7 matches, but their offense has scored frequently, since they have scored goals in 6 of the last 7 matches for this competition. In the last 17 home matches for all competitions there are 1 periods that stand out: they have conceded 6 of their 11 goals between minutes (46'‑60').

      Zenit heads into this match after a 0-0 draw against Krasnodar, in a game for the Russian league. They have been without a win for 3 consecutive games. Usually, coach Andre Villas-boas plays in a 4-2-3-1 formation, prioritising ball possession and organized attacks, especially through the wings using Hulk and Danny. However, these players usually don't help the defense, leaving space for their opponents. Dzyuba is still the best scorer on the team, with 16 goals. For this match, they will be without Javi Garcia and Criscito, who are suspended, in addition to Fayzulin, Malafeev and Evseev, who are hurt.

      Analysis of Benfica

      The away team comes to this 2nd leg match with an advantage of 1 goals, but has suffered 0 goals at home in the 1st leg. This is a team that usually gets better results in away matches than at home, since in the last 30 matches they register 12 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses in away matches, with 40 goals scored and 10 conceded; against 12 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses at their stadium, with 36 goals scored and 10 conceded. In their last match, for the Primeira Liga, they got an away win against o Sporting CP by (0‑1). In the last 10 away matches o Benfica has won 9, tied 1 and lost 0.

      Defensive consistency hasn’t been their best feature, as they have conceded goals in 5 of the last 7 matches, but their offense has scored consistently, as they have scored at least one goal in each of the last 7 matches for this competition. This is a team that likes to score first. They have opened up the score in 14 of the last 15 matches, they have reached half‑time in front in 9 of those 14 matches and have held on to the lead until the end of the 90' in 13 of them.

      Benfica reaches this match with a very high motivation after beating their rivals Sporting and reaching the lead of the league. However, they have to make a comeback in this next match. Rui Vitoria should play his team in a 4-4-2 formation with Jonas and Mitroglou as the forwards. They have a lot of defenders absent for this match, as Jardel and Andre Almeirda are suspended and Luisao, Lisandro Lopez, Julio Cesar and Nuno Santos are hurt.

      Betting suggestion:

      The most likely scenario for this match is the occurrence of a small number of goals. Benfica only needs a draw and Zenit has flaws in their offensive system, so we expect and evenly matched game with a small number of spaces. So we believe the home team should win, but with a small number of goals being scored.

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      Stats » UEFA Champions League » Zenit vs Benfica