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Topic: Vitória Setúbal vs Marítimo - Primeira Liga Rnd.21 06/02/16 18:30  (Read 125 times)

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    Stats » Primeira Liga Portugal » Vitória Setúbal vs Marítimo

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      Analysis: Vitória Setúbal vs Marítimo (06 February 2016)
      « Reply #1 on: February 05 2016, 16:59 »

      Vitória Setúbal and Marítimo meet at Estádio do Bonfim, in a match for the 21th round of the Primeira Liga. Marítimo got a home win by (5‑2), in the last league head‑to‑head, played in 13‑09‑2015. The head‑to‑head record at this stadium favours the away team, since in the last 4 head‑to‑heads they won 2, tied 1 and lost 1. Nevertheless, in the last head‑to‑head played at this stadium, for the Primeira Liga, on 09‑11‑2014, Vitória Setúbal won by (1‑0). Giovani (30' ) scored the only goal of the match. The home/away factor is worth special atention, since although this is a match between 9th and 13th of the league table, it’s also a match between the 15th best team in home matches and the 14th best in away matches.

      Analysis of Vitória Setúbal

      After 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses, the home team is in the 9th position, havinf won 25 points so far. In the last match, they have lost in an away match against Rio Ave by (2‑1), after in the previous match they have won (2‑1) at home, against Académica. Interestingly enough, this is a team that has had better results in away matches than at home, since they have won 13 points in away matches and only 12 at their stadium. In the last 10 home league matches Vitória Setúbal has a record of 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses, so they have won 12 points out of 30 possible. The most recurrent final score in their home league matches was the 2‑2 (4 out of 10 matches). They haven't been very strong defensively, since they have suffered goals in 9 of the last 10 matches, but their offense has scored frequently, since they have scored goals in 8 of the last 10 matches for this competition. In their home matches there is a tendency for goals, since 7 of the last 10 matches for this competition have ended with Over 2,5 goals. They have conceded the first goal in 8 of their 20 matches for this competition, and have never been able to turn the score around. In the last 10 home matches for this competition there are 2 periods that stand out: they have scored 5 of their 14 goals between minutes (76'‑90'); they have conceded 7 of their 20 goals between minutes (46'‑60').

      Vitória de Setúbal is going through a hard moment in the season, since they register 4 losses in the last 5 matches. Coach Quim Machado should play with a 4-4-2 formation, with Hassan and André Claro in front. After Suk left the club to represent FC Porto, the best scorer of the team is now André Claro, with 9 goals scored this season. But this change has also forced the team to change its style, so they now attack in a more paused and organized fashion. The home coach will not be able to count on Arnold and Paulo Tavares, who have both been suspended.

      Analysis of Marítimo

      The away team is currently in the 13th position of the league, with 21 points won, after 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses. In the penultimate match, they lost in an away match against Porto, by (1‑0). In the last match, they lost in a home match against Belenenses, by (1‑2). This is a team that usually makes good use of the home advantage, since they have won 7 points in away matches and 14 points at their stadium, with 17 goals scored and 13 goals conceded at home, against 10 goals scored and 26 conceded in away matches. In the last 10 away league matches Marítimo has a record of 2 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses, so they have won 7 points out of 30 possible. Defensive consistency hasn’t been their best feature, as they have conceded at least one goal in each of the last 10 matches for this competition. In 20 matches for this competition, they have conceded the first goal 12 times and have only turned the score around in 1. In the last 10 away matches for this competition there is 1 period that stands out: they have scored 4 of their 10 goals between minutes (31'‑45').

      As the opponent, Marítimo hasn’t had positive results in the last matches, since they haven’t won any of the last 4. Coach Nelo Vingada usually plays in a 4-3-3 formation, privileging defensive organization and counterattacks. But in this match he should try to defend away from his own goal, to pressure the opponent into making mistakes and take advantages of the weaknesses of Setúbal. The best scorer of Marítimo is Dyego Sousa, with 8 goals scored, but he has been suspended and will not be able to play this match. Recovering from injuries will be Xavier and Ghazaryan.

      Betting suggestion:

      The most likely scenario is that both teams will score. Analysing the last matches of both teams and their need to win points, we expect an open match and goal opportunities for both teams. Therefore, as in the last matches, both defences should not avoid conceding goals.


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