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Topic: Liverpool vs Sunderland - Premier League Rnd.25 06/02/16 15:00  (Read 74 times)

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    Stats » Premier League England » Liverpool vs Sunderland

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      Analysis: Liverpool vs Sunderland (06 February 2016)
      « Reply #1 on: February 04 2016, 18:00 »

      Liverpool and Sunderland face at Anfield, in a match for the 25th round of the Premier League. In the last league head‑to‑head, played in 30‑12‑2015, Liverpool got an away win by (0‑1). The head‑to‑head history at this stadium, favours the home team, since in the last 4 head‑to‑heads they won 2 and tied 2. Nevertheless, in the last head‑to‑head played at this stadium, for the Premier League, on 06‑12‑2014, they tied (0‑0). The home/away factor is worth special atention, since although this is a match between 8th and 19th of the league table, it’s also a match between the 13th best team in home matches and the 18th best in away matches.

      Analysis of Liverpool

      After 9 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses, the home team is in the 8th position, havinf won 34 points so far. In the last match, they have lost in an away match against Leicester City by (2‑0), after in the previous match they have won (4‑5) an away match against Norwich City. This is a team that usually gets better results in away matches than at home, since they have won 18 points in away matches, with 16 goals scored and 19 conceded, against 16 points won at their stadium, with 14 goals scored and 15 conceded. For the league, Liverpool won 13 points out of 30 possible points, after 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in the last 10 home matches. In their home league matches the most frequent result at half‑time was the 0‑0 (5 out of 11 matches). They haven't been very strong defensively, since they have suffered goals in 8 of the last 10 matches for this competition. They have conceded the first goal in 9 of their 24 matches for this competition, and have only turned the score around in 1.

      Liverpool comes to this match with the intention of improving their position in the league, since they have lost against Leicester in the last round. In this match Liverpool managed not to concede goals in the first half, thanks to a great exhibition from keeper Mignolet. But in the second half they were unable to resist the efficiency of striker Vardy, the best scorer of the league, with 18 goals scored this season. Moreover, Liverpool had problems creating goal opportunities, so striker Roberto Firmino was unable to score and was replaced. In home league matches they have scored 9 goals in 11 matches and suffered 8 goals. Moreover, they haven’t won any of the last 2 home matches. However, they faced top quality teams: Arsenal and Manchester United.

      Analysis of Sunderland

      The away team is currently in the 19th position of the league, with 19 points won, after 5 wins, 4 draws and 15 losses. In the penultimate match, they tied in a home match against AFC Bournemouth, by (1‑1). In the last match, they lost in a home match against Manchester City, by (0‑1). This is a team that usually makes good use of the home advantage, since they have won 7 points in away matches and 12 points at their stadium, with 13 goals scored and 13 goals conceded at home, against 15 goals scored and 34 conceded in away matches. In the last 10 away league matches Sunderland has a record of 2 wins and 8 losses, so they have won 6 points out of 30 possible. Defensive consistency hasn’t been their best feature, as they have conceded at least one goal in each of the last 10 matches, but their offense has scored consistently, as they have scored goals in 7 of the last 10 matches for this competition. In their away mathes there is a tendency for goals, since 9 of the last 12 matches for this competition have ended with Over 2,5 goals. In 24 matches for this competition, they have conceded the first goal 16 times and have never been able to turn the score around. In the last 12 away matches for this competition there is 1 period that stands out: they have scored 6 of their 15 goals between minutes (46'‑60').

      Sunderland had a great exhibition against Manchester City, despite the 1-0 loss. They suffered the goal at minute 15’ of the first half, but afterwards they pressured the 2nd placed of the league. Defoe had a great exhibition and pressured Joe Hart, but the keeper had a great exhibition too and avoided the equalizer. Sunderland is 4 points behind Norwich City, the first team out of the relegation zone, so they need to win points to reach a more comfortable position. Although they haven’t won but one of the last 7 matches, they scored at least one goal in all of them. Therefore, their biggest weakness is not offensive but defensive. Sure enough, Sunderland is the worst defence of the league, with 47 goals conceded in 24 matches.

      Betting suggestion:

      The most likely scenario is that Liverpool will win. Although they haven’t won any of the last 2 home matches, despite the away loss in the last round, Liverpool has a much better squad and urgently needs to win to at least get into a European competition standing. Moreover, Sunderland hasn’t been very strong in away matches, so they shouldn’t be able to create many problems. The away team is also the worst defence of the league, so Liverpool should take advantage of that to get the 3 points in this round.

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