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Topic: Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano - Primera División Rnd.20 17/01/16 11:00  (Read 94 times)

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    Stats » Primera División Spain » Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano

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      Analysis: Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano (17 January 2016)
      « Reply #1 on: January 15 2016, 17:32 »

      Valencia and Rayo Vallecano face at Estadio de Mestalla, in a match for the 20th round of the Primera División. In the last head‑to‑head for this edition of the league, played on 22‑08‑2015, these teams have tied (0‑0). At this stadium, the head‑to‑head history favours the home team, since they have a record of 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in the last 5 matches. However, the last time these teams met at this stadium, on 16‑12‑2014, in a match for the Copa del Rey, they tied (4‑4). The goals of the match were scored by Paco Alcácer (7' and 65' ), Morcillo (46' Own goal) and Rodrigo (71' ), for Valencia, and by Jozabed (20' ), Pozuelo (23' ), Jonathan Pereira (38' ) and Adri Embarba (61' ), for Rayo Vallecano. In this match the home advantage may play an important role, as both teams present significant differences between home and away performances.

      Analysis of Valencia

      The home team is currently in the 11th position of the league, with 23 points won, after 5 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses. In the penultimate match, they tied in a home match against Real Madrid, by (2‑2). In the last match, they lost in an away match against Real Sociedad, by (2‑0). This is a team that usually makes good use of the home advantage, stronger with the help of its supporters, since in the last 30 matches they register 5 wins, 1 draw and 9 losses in away matches, with 17 goals scored and 18 conceded; against 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses at their stadium, with 27 goals scored and 14 conceded. In their last match, for the Copa del Rey, they got an away win against Granada by (0‑3). In the last 9 home league matches Valencia has a record of 3 wins and 6 draws, so they have won 15 points out of 27 possible.

      They have tied the last 4 home matches and haven't lost any of the last 9 home matches for this competition. Defensive consistency hasn’t been their best feature, as they have conceded goals in 9 of the last 10 matches, but their offense has scored consistently, as they have scored goals in 7 of the last 10 matches for this competition. In 19 matches for this competition, they have conceded the first goal 10 times and have never been able to turn the score around.

      The home team in usually strong in set pieces, creating goal opportunities and defensive aggressiveness. But they also lack defensive organization, which is their main weakness. In this match coach Neville should play in the usual 4-3-3 formation, with Paco Alcácer, who has scored 8 goals this season, in front. Recovering from injuries are Diego Alves, Feghouli and Enzo Pérez.

      Analysis of Vallecano

      The away team is currently in the 19th position of the league, with 15 points won, after 4 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses. In the penultimate match, they tied in a home match against Real Sociedad, by (2‑2). In the last match, they lost in an away match against Levante, by (2‑1). This is a team that usually makes good use of the home advantage, stronger with the help of its supporters, since in the last 30 matches they register 2 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses in away matches, with 14 goals scored and 42 conceded; against 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses at their stadium, with 18 goals scored and 22 conceded. In their last match, for the Copa del Rey, they got an away loss against Atlético Madrid by (3‑0). In the last 9 away league matches Rayo Vallecano has a record of 1 win, 1 draw and 7 losses, so they have won 4 points out of 27 possible.

      In this competition, they haven’t won any of the last 7 away matches. Defensive consistency hasn’t been their best feature, as they have conceded at least one goal in each of the last 10 matches, but their offense has scored consistently, as they have scored goals in 7 of the last 10 matches for this competition. In their away mathes there is a tendency for goals, since 6 of the last 9 matches for this competition have ended with Over 2,5 goals. In 19 matches for this competition, they have conceded the first goal 10 times and have never been able to turn the score around.

      Rayo Vallecano has many weaknesses, both defensive and offensive: their defensive transitions are too slow sometimes, they don’t create that many goal opportunities and they often lose the ball in dangerous zones. However, they do make good use of offensive set pieces. Coach Paco Jémez should use the usual formation, but in this match he cannot count on Javi Guerra, who has been suspended, nor Cobeno, Ebert, Rat, Toño, Yoel and Antonio Amaya, who are recovering from injuries.

      Betting suggestion:

      The most likely scenario is that Valencia will win. We believe Valencia will have more initiative in this match and create the best goal opportunities, due to the quality they have shown in the last matches at their stadium. Therefore, they should take advantage of the opponent’s weaknesses to start winning again.


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