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Topic: Nacional vs Benfica - Primeira Liga Rnd.17 10/01/16 20:30  (Read 126 times)

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    Stats » Primeira Liga Portugal » Nacional vs Benfica

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    • Posts: 151403
      Analysis: Nacional vs Benfica (10 January 2016)
      « Reply #1 on: January 08 2016, 09:52 »

      Nacional and Benfica face at Estádio da Madeira, in a match for the 17th round of the Primeira Liga. At this stadium, the head‑to‑head history favours the away team, since they have a record of 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 matches. Sure enough, the last time these teams met at this stadium, on 09‑11‑2014, in a match for the Primeira Liga, Benfica won by (1‑2). The goals of the match were scored by Edgar Abreu (1' ), for Nacional, and by E. Salvio (7' ) and Jonas (19' ), for Benfica. Although this is a match between 12th and 2nd of the league table, it’s actually a match between the 10th best in home matches and the 5th best in away matches.

      Analysis of Nacional

      The home team is currently in the 12th position of the league, with 17 points won, after 4 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses. In the penultimate match, they tied in a home match against Arouca, by (2‑2). In the last match, they tied in an away match against Belenenses, by (2‑2). This is a team that usually plays better at home, where they have won 12 points, against only 5 points in away matches. In the last 7 home league matches Nacional has a record of 3 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss, so they have won 12 points out of 21 possible. They haven't been very strong defensively, since they have suffered goals in 8 of the last 10 matches, but their offense has scored frequently, since they have scored goals in 7 of the last 10 matches for this competition. In 16 matches for this competition, they have conceded the first goal 8 times and have never been able to turn the score around. In the last 9 home matches for all competitions there is 1 period that stands out: they have conceded 4 of their 6 goals between minutes (0'‑15').

      Nacional da Madeira is going through a difficult moment of the season and, at until now, they don’t win for four consecutive official matches. In this match, it’s foreseeable that the coach Manuel Machado will play in 4-3-3 favoring the defensive organization and the counterattacks. Agra and Willyan are very quick and essential players in defense-attack transitions. However, Tiquinho Soares is the best team scorer with four goals scored. For this match, almost all players are available and able to play. 

      Analysis of Benfica

      The away team is currently in the 2nd position of the league, with 37 points won, after 12 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses. In the penultimate match, they won in an away match against Vitória Guimarães, by (0‑1). In the last match, they won in a home match against Marítimo, by (6‑0). This is a team that usually makes good use of the home advantage, since they have won 13 points in away matches and 24 points at their stadium, with 30 goals scored and 6 goals conceded at home, against 11 goals scored and 4 conceded in away matches. In the last 7 away league matches Benfica has a record of 4 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, so they have won 13 points out of 21 possible.

      In this competition, they haven’t lost any of the last 5 away matches. In their away league matches the most frequent result at half‑time was the 0‑0 (3 out of 7 matches). Defensive consistency has been one of their best features, as they have only conceded goals in 3 of the last 10 matches, and their offense has scored consistently, as they have scored goals in 8 of the last 10 matches for this competition. In 16 matches for this competition, they have conceded the first goal 4 times and have only turned the score around in 1. In the last 9 away matches for all competitions there are 2 periods that stand out: they have scored 6 of their 15 goals between minutes (0'‑15'); they have conceded 3 of their 7 goals between minutes (31'‑45').

      Benfica comes really motivated for this match after a home win, by 6-0, against Maritimo. Pizzi, Jiménez, Jonas and Talisca scored the goals of victory. Luisão, Salvio, Silvio and Nelson Semedo won’t be able to contribute to their team because they are injured. Benfica has become quite well from the psychic point of view, despite some handlings don’t be as well achieved. For this match, Pizzi and Jonas may have an extra motivation for having scored twice in the previous match. 

      Betting suggestion:

      The most likely scenario for this match is that both teams will score at least one goal. It’s known that the goal of Benfica hasn’t been widely scored in the recent matches; however, the historic between the two teams points to an open match and with scoring chances in both areas. Thus, it’s foreseeable that both teams will be able to score at least one goal. 


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