Day 4 of 7 from my diary Madrid
Real Madrid 5-1 Athletic de Bilbau
For those who haven’t seen the game, the result can be quite misleading.
EBilbau was the best team that played in Real Madrid stadium this year, at least the team who played the better football.
When the game started, we saw a defiant Bilbau but Real Madrid was the one who has the low odd.
Although I believed that Real Madrid will win the match, I thought that it would not be that easy as the odds suggested.
My strategy was to bet against Real Madrid and wait for the odds to level up.
And they were leveling…
19th minute of the match: Real Madrid scores, 1-0
When Real Madrid first scores I was winning 260€ (* 1) but I had 3707,04€ (*2) against Real Madrid.
For those who didn’t know
Betangel this means that:
If the match ended right now:
- I would won3707.04€ if Real Madrid didn’t win.
- And I would lose -601.02€ (*3) if Real Madrid win.
However the most important value is 260,11€ because it says how much we can win now if we split equally the profit for all the market selections.
When Real Madrid scored the odd dropped and I’ve lost money -282.46€
19th minute of the match: Real Madrid scores, 1-0
I’ve analyzed carefully the players reaction to that unfair result so far.
I was surprised because Athletic didn’t accuse the goal and kept playing good football. So I kept a cautious strategy and mostly against Real Madrid.
Real Madrid scored the second goal and I was still in red, although I’ve slightly reduced to -249.98€
30th minute of the match: Real Madrid scores, 2-0
¿What now?
The second goal is usual a key moment in football matches. Some teams relax when they reach 2-0, others motivate even more and go to the rout. The losing teams get usually discouraged, but some other teams take advantage of such relaxation of the adversary.
I’ve carefully analyzed the psychological moment of the players, for example by their reaction on divided balls where the Athletic players were clearly winning.
My conclusions: Real Madrid players started to think on the next match (Barcelona vs Real Madrid). Athletic felt that relaxation from Real Madrid and didn’t gave up, despite the handicap of 2 goals.
Strategy to follow:
With the odd between 1,01 and 1,02 it’s rewarding to bet against Real Madrid.
Because:
- How the match was going it was not likely that Real scored another.
- There was still a long time before the match ended. The odd was not going to drop below 1,01 and after that lay bet it was still possible to bet in favor of Real Madrid at 1,01 for a long time.
- The prize for a possible Athletic goal was big (Real Madrid odd could rise several ticks) for such small risk (losing 1tick at most, this is lay at 1,02 and then be forced to do back at 1,01).
Being so, let’s
bet against Real Madrid.
(even though I was fully convinced that Real Madrid will win the game, according to my analysis, 1,01 odd for Real Madrid is too low and unfair).
40th minute of the match: Athletic Bilbau scores, 2-1
As I predicted Athletic scored.
I had a total of 52.217,84€ bet against Real Madrid.
Notice that all that money represents only 1.044,36€ of liability in
Betfair.
Look:
Meaning, someone with 1.044,36€ in
Betfair bank can make a Lay bet at 1,02 odd of 52.217,84€.
With Athletic on top of the game I knew that I had until half time to ask for the 2nd goal from Athletic.
The goal didn’t came and I lost the change to win in this match more than 30.000€.
There is one important fact for this match: Mourinho wasn’t in the bench because he was serving punishment. However he could come down to the bathhouse in the half time. I knew the game will end then. Mourinho would make his players understand that Barcelona match was until the next week and that it was very important to win this game with Athletic in order to visit Barcelona in the first place. He would motivate his players to re-enter the game with ambition and not relaxed as they were after their second goal.
Strategy to follow
As Real Madrid odds raised with the Athletic goal, and with the explanation I just gave about the half time, I decided to bet this time Back on Real Madrid.
57th minute of the match: Real Madrid scores, 3-1
And as I predicted once more, Real Madrid scored.
By that time I had 48.833€ in favor of Real Madrid, because I was plenty convicted that Real would enter the second half searching for the goal.
If the goal didn’t show and the match walked to the end with only one goal difference, my position would be different.
62nd minute of the match: Real Madrid scores, 4-1
After the 3-1 I decided to split the profit between all selections.
The 4-1 came when I hadn’t any open position and I had already a total profit of 6.673€.
As the match was decided I moved to the market Over/Under 5,5 goals.
By that time I realized that Real Madrid was happy with the result and was again thinking on Barcelona match.
However the odd of the Over 5,5 goals was very low due to the recent goals, so I grab it to trade on the escalade of the odd.
I left that market with 716.90€ profit and moved to work now on the Under 5,5 goals as it had more liquidity right now.
I was trading in the drop of the odds.
In the last minutes, the match was broken and I realized that the goal could come at any minute even though I wasn’t that sure to bet in favor of the goal.
I split the profit equally for the Over and the Under.
I did wrong… the goal actually came in the last minute. I could have won more money.
Even though, in the Over/Under 5,5 goals market I won a total of 3.129€.
Total profit for this match: 9.466,59 €