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Topic: Benfica vs Nacional - Primeira Liga Rnd.34 15/05/16 17:00  (Read 159 times)

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    Stats » Primeira Liga Portugal » Benfica vs Nacional

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      Analysis: Benfica vs Nacional (15 May 2016)
      « Reply #1 on: May 14 2016, 05:30 »

      Benfica and Nacional meet at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), in a match for the 34ª round of the Primeira Liga. Benfica got an away win by (1‑4), in the last league head‑to‑head, played in 11‑01‑2016. At this stadium, the head‑to‑head history favours the home team, since they have a record of 6 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses in the last 6 matches. Sure enough, the last time these teams met at this stadium, on 29‑12‑2015, in a match for the Taça da Liga, Benfica won by (1‑0). The only goal of the match was scored by R. Jiménez (89' ). Although this is a match between 1º and 10º of the league table, it’s actually a match between the 1º best in home matches and the 16º best in away matches.

      Analysis of Benfica

      After 28 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses, the home team is in the 1ª position, havinf won 85 points so far. In the last match, they have won in an away match against Marítimo by (0‑2), after in the previous match they have won (1‑0) at home, against Vitória Guimarães. Interestingly enough, this is a team that has had better results in away matches than at home, since they have won 43 points in away matches and only 42 at their stadium. In the last 10 home league matches o Benfica has a record of 9 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses, so they have won 27 points out of 30 possible.

      Their offense has scored consistently, as they have scored at least one goal in each of the last 10 matches for this competition. There is a tendency for goals in their home matches, since 13 of the last 16 for this competition have ended with Over 2,5 goals. This is a team that likes to score first. They have opened up the score in 25 of the last 33 matches for the Primeira Liga, they have reached half‑time in front in 17 of those 25 matches and have held on to the lead until the end of the 90' in 24 of them. In 33 matches for this competition, they have conceded the first goal 7 times, but have turned the score around in 4.

      Benfica comes to this match motivated by a 0-2 away win over Marítimo, with goals by Mitroglou and Talisca, even though they have played most of the match with 10, after Renato Sanches was shown a red card. Coach Rui Vitória should play with Fejsa in the midfield, given the quality of the last exhibitions of this midfielder. Therefore, in the midfield Benfica should play with Carcela, Pizzi, Fejsa and Samaris. The home team has had good exhibitions in the last matches and is highly motivated to get the win and confirm the title in the Portuguese league. However, Victoria will not be able to count on Renato Sanches and Eliseu, who have been suspended.

      Analysis of Nacional

      The away team is currently in the 10ª position of the league, with 38 points won, after 10 wins, 8 draws and 15 losses. In the penultimate match, they lost in an away match against o Arouca, by (3‑0). In the last match, they tied in a home match against o Belenenses, by (2‑2). This is a team that usually makes good use of the home advantage, since they have won 10 points in away matches and 28 at their stadium, with 29 goals scored and 24 conceded at home, against 10 goals scored and 28 conceded in away matches. In the last 10 away league matches Nacional has a record of 1 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses, so they have won 7 points out of 30 possible.

      Defensive consistency hasn’t been their best feature, as they have conceded goals in 7 of the last 10 matches for this competition. In 33 matches for this competition, they have conceded the first goal 18 times and have only turned the score around in 1.

      Nacional comes to this match after a 2-2 away draw against Belenenses. Coach Manuel Machado should play in a 4-3-3 formation, privileging defensive organization and counter-attacks, taking advantage of the quality and speed of wingers Agra and Witi. Tiquinho is the best scorer of the team, with 10 goals scored so far in the league. Machado should have all players available for this match; therefore, Nacional comes in full strength to this match.

      Betting suggestion:

      The most likely scenario is that there will be a few goals in the final score. The home team is highly motivated to win and counts on the support of the fans to get the 3 points and the national title. Nacional is no longer fighting for any goals in the league, so they are playing under pressure. Therefore, we expect Benfica to dominate the match and create the best goal opportunities.


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