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How to measure competence in a winning bet?

How to measure competence in a winning bet?
Luck is part of a winning bet, but how long have I been competent at it?
by Academia   |   comments 0
Monday, January 17 2022

Being lucky doesn't hurt anyone, does it? However, this is a very delicate issue in betting, as we must never depend on it, since our ability to deal with all the challenges of this segment is what will make us profitable in the long term. However, the big question is knowing how to differentiate one thing from another, because only then will you know how competent you are in your choices.

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Some punters have higher profits compared to others, this is no surprise, but it is often not explained why this is so. As in any profession, there are people trained in this environment, just as there are those who do not have the same technical notion, or the same gift and ease to become a prominent and profitable player. But how this success can be acquired is a question that many have.

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In poker, when you are dealt cards, in addition to those announced by the dealer at the table, the others are basically a matter of luck. However, as the game develops, luck gives way to the player's ability to read correctly and use tricks that are part of the game. In sports that involve repetitions throughout the match, such as sets, capacity is a differentiating factor throughout these repetitions. A perfect modality to give this example is tennis, where there is a sequence of sets. That 52% probability of winning a single point increases to 85% for winning a set of five in a match.
There are people who have greater access to information and data, but it is useless if they do not have the ability or facility to read correctly. There are now advanced methods that help the bettor to measure these odds. The prediction ability in this case improves, but, at the same time, if the relative abilities show a variation through these methods, the luck factor comes in with a greater influence, since there was a decrease in the difference between the best and worst bettors after using of these robots.
When betting on markets where bookmakers and punters are not familiar with or do not have this database through advanced systems, like the example in the paragraph above, the influence of luck will be less. In this case, there will be less information for them to find an exact value of that bet or prediction, and you can put your ability to the test, without this influence. The closing line is another way of measuring your ability, moving away from the possibility of luck in this case. Winning it on a regular and consistent basis can mean that you have an ability above the average of the people who are competing in this market.
When trying to compete in environments and markets where luck will prevail, you should be concerned with the process that leads to making these decisions, not directly with the outcome. In such cases, where luck distorts the ability to add up profits, an experienced player can lose money, just as a beginner can make bigger gains.
The betting market presents a high degree of complexity and randomness, as the information that makes the odds lines move makes them enter the market many times at random. This unpredictability ends up having causes and effects for a gambler, as he interprets it. The process by which the discovery of these values ​​is formed is directly linked to the opinions that are issued about what may occur in that event, that is, assumptions.
Although many gamblers put the profits they have obtained into account of their ability, we cannot deny that this environment where they operate is not regular, much less predictable, as it is often taken by luck, through these randomness and assumptions that they have been subjected to. throughout the evaluation of what will happen in that event.

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