A pertinent question in the life of a bettor is knowing how to differentiate luck from technical ability in a successful bet. In specific cases, even if your reading was not correct, “supernatural” things happen or divine help so that your guess ends up in green. But to have evolution and success it will be necessary to have skills and good reading, and this is where we will debate the closing line. This is one of the basics of knowing if you are able to evaluate the value of a bet, as this technique can contribute a lot to your long-term wins.
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One of the wrong thoughts many gamblers have is to simplify betting just on the final result. The right thing to have a consistent and earning career is to find value in the market, to know which direction the line of that event will take, so that you can win it. Thus, closing line are those values that the market is paying when the game starts. It reveals in values all the feeling and information seconds before the event.
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It is through it that you analyze that unregulated market, with an odd at which you find value. You plot an odd of 1.80 to work, find an event worth 1.95 pre-live and decide to take advantage. In the closing line, that is, when the match starts, this odd is in the place of 1.70. At that point you beat the closing line, you know you have a valuable read.
One of the goals of finding the closing line is for you to know your performance and become a profitable bettor. For this efficiency to be applied, it is necessary to know how to absorb all the information and updates from that game, as the lines can move in view of these facts. Furthermore, when you acquire this information, you will have to know if the market acted with the expected efficiency and agility or correctly. That absence of a player or an extra suit, which were not at all expected, can change the course of a game and consequently with the values of a bookmaker, for example.
When you decide to place a bet, some mix of possibilities will follow. If the line moved in your favor, it is a positive thing to consider, as you will be making gains. If it took the opposite path, it is because the market is having another reading of the event, requiring you to rethink your assessment, because at that moment you are having a loss. As may also occur the possibility that the values remain stable, with a division of analysis and money for both sides, making your assessment without relevance only.
In addition to finding it, you need to know how to measure the closing line. Let's assume that you took an odd of 2.00, and on the closing line it meets an odd of 1.89. Basically, you can say that you had gains of 0.11 ticks in this movement. If you want to measure it in the form of probability, the original odd represents half the chance of winning (50%), while on the closing line it increased to almost 53%. Or you can measure it as expected value, in the case of the example above it would be this almost 3% increase difference which would represent an expected value of 6% (3% / 50%).
Although all these analyzes do not represent a certain recipe for success, they teach us not to focus only on the event's result, but on the values and its closing line, so that your earning possibilities are through the most professional methods possible.
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