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How to bet on the over / under 2,5 market?

How to bet on the over / under 2,5 market?

A statistical analysis, as well as a good qualitative analysis, should be part of the betting decision on any market.

See how to do it using the Online Betting Academy statistics.

by Academia   |   comments 0

The following statistical analysis was performed on four matches to realize what to do when betting on the over / under 2.5 market.

Let's go through these matches one by one:

Chelsea – Wolves

chelsea-wolver-eng

It's a risky but worthwhile bet:
  • 50% of Chelsea's home matches have finished with more than 2.5 goals, although the average is clearly higher when it comes to goals scored at home;
  • 50% of Wolves' away matches have finished with more than 2.5 goals;
  • Fair Odd for the under 2,5: clearly above 2, but under 2.5.
  • Available offer for the under 2.5 market: odd of 3.10

If they offer an odd clearly above our fair odds, we'll bet!!

 
Getafe – Sport. Gijón

getafe-gijon-eng

This is a match that has everything to have more than 2.5 goals:

  • 67% of Getafe's home matches have finished with more than 2.5 goals;
  • 67% of Gijon's away matches have finished with more than 2.5 goals;
  • Fair Odd for the over 2.5: odd of 1.8
  • Offer available in the over 2.5 market: odd of 2.11
Our fair odd is well under 2, so if the available odd for the over 2.5 market is at 2.11, we'll bet!!

Liverpool – Blackburn

liverpool-blackburn-eng

Great game to exemplify the over / under 2,5 market:

  • 50% of Liverpool's home matches have finished with more than 2.5 goals;
  • 50% of Blackburn's away matches have finished with more than 2.5 goals;
  • Fair Odd for the over 2.5: odd below 2
  • Offer available in the over 2.5 market: odd of 2.14
The available odd is clearly above our fair odd, which is the result of our brief statistical analysis. Should we bet? Of course!
 

Stoke City – Man United

stoke-man united-eng
 
  • 50% of Stoke City’s home matches have finished with more than 2.5 goals;
  • 75% of Manchester United's away matches have finished with more than 2.5 goals;
  • Fair Odd for the over 2.5: odd clearly below 2
  • Offer available in the over 2.5 market: odd of 2.04

In this match there is also an available odd clearly above our fair odd. Therefore, the over 2,5 is a market that has everything to give us a profit. Let's bet?

Here are four matches that exemplify how we can use a good statistical analysis on the over / under 2.5 market.

However, we should not only rely on a good statistical analysis, it is also important to have qualitative information.

A qualitative analysis, which is personal and subjective, consists on interpreting the statistical data and match conditionings (relevant news, for example) in order to find out if there’s value in a bet. For this, it is necessary to have experience and intuition to be able to elaborate a correct qualitative analysis.

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Comments (4)


  1. Soni 10 Sep 2017 - 12:25
    Great, but what number of matches is the ideal to analyse for THE OVER / UNDER 2.5 MARKET.
  1. Mary Popins 31 Oct 2017 - 14:33
    i shall try this
  1. samo 04 May 2019 - 19:02
    Good insights
  1. ssengasimukyala 18 Jun 2019 - 08:55
    Thanks, I joined here for leaning, so let me try it.