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Tennis: How to analyse the H2H history

Tennis: How to analyse the H2H history
The h2h is one of many factors that should be considered when analysing a match, looking for the best bet.
by Academia   |   comments 0
Tuesday, March 8 2016

When analysing a tennis match it's common to find a h2h record very favourable to one of the players, but that is not enough.
As I have commented before, analysing the h2h between two players is useful to identify good bets. But it's only useful if some factors are taken into consideration:
Don't focus only on the number of wins, but consider the surfaces in which the matches were won. Imagine a h2h record of 8-3, with 5 of the 8 wins in hard surfaces and 3 in grass. The weakest player won the 3 matches played in clay. If the next match is to be played at the Montecarlo Masters, a clay tournament, who would you bet won? You should definitely bet on the player that is behind in the h2h record, but won the 3 matches played in clay.
Take the dates into account, since recent matches are a better indicator than older ones. For example, if the h2h between Rafa Nadal and James Blake is 4-3, we may think that a bet in favour of Blake is of good value. But after carefully analysing the records, it's clear that Blake won the first 3 matches, between 2005 and 2006, when the Spanish was starting to stand out but wasn't the nº1 of the ranking he came to be. On the other hand, Nadal's 4 wins were between 2008 and 2009, when he was a more experienced and complete player in all surfaces. Clearly the recent matches in this case are a much better indicator.
Consider the importance of the tournaments in which the matches were played. The better indicators are matches played in tournaments of similar importance to the match we which to bet on. For example, we may find a h2h record of 4-4 in which one player won in ATP250 tournaments and the other in Grand Slams. Clearly the wins in such big tournaments are much better indicators than the ATP250 matches. It shows that the player that has won the most important matches usually rises to the occasion.
The h2h is just one of many factors to be taken into account when searching for a value bet. Therefore, you should weigh these other factors carefully to take the most out of this indicator. Betting blindly on h2h absolute values is surely not the best strategy.
* Translated from the original article written by Sheyk in Apostas Betfair

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Comment (1)
  1. José Cardoso3059 23 Mar 2019 - 19:59