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Beginner Trading (Tennis examples)

Beginner Trading (Tennis examples)
For you to succeed on your trading bets you must know that what you have to do is to look for oscillating markets and take advantage of it. Buying when it's high and selling when it’s low or buying when it's low and selling when it's high.
by NYA-Mike   |   comments 0
Friday, May 15 2015

Well, i understand that you are just starting and I would be more than happy to help but, I cannot give you a basic understanding of basic trading without writing a wall of text that you would probably struggle to read without falling asleep. You surely noticed already that Paulo does videos "willy nilly" becasue truthfully it is much easier to explain to the camera in 5 minutes what would likely take hours to write. It might seem fantastic but it is just like that. People say that a picture is worth a thousand words, well i'll tell you that a video is worth thousands of pictures. Now you do the math wink

Anyway, for you to be successful at trading what you have to do is look for oscillating markets and take advantage of them to make money. Buying when it’s high and selling when it's low or buying when it's low and selling when it goes up. I quickly grabbed this picture from google images: 


I can't tell for sure which match this was but I think you can tell that this is a post-match oscillation graph showing the ups and downs of Murray's odd that began at 1.50 and ended with his win dropping to the 1.01 shown. 

What happened on this match was: 
  •  Murray's odd started at 1.50 - he was the favourite
  •  That odd stayed stable for a while - because the match wasn't live yet or it was highly balanced.
  •  It went up to 2.50 - the underdog was blasting him hard
  •  It dropped to 1.60 - Murray turned it around, matched the break or something similar
  •  Up it went again to 2.75 - the same as when it went to up to 2.5
  •  It kept rising to 3.0 - Here things were really bad and the underdog's odd was at 1.50
  •  Dropped to 1.75 - Sets drawn perhaps
  •  Again it went up to 2.25 - ok, now it's getting weird, must have been a really exciting game  ;D
  •  Again it dropped to 1.50 - Murray finaly took the match into his own hands
  •  All the way down to 1.01 - He took the game by storm and led until the end

Now that you know all the oscillations of Murray's odds you could win thousands with a 100€ bank. How? Easy. 
  • Murray's odd started at 1.50 - You Lay
  • That odd stayed stable for a while - You did nothing
  • It went up to 2.50 - You Backed
  • It dropped to 1.60 - Lay again
  • Up it went again to 2.75 - Back again
  • It kept rising to 3.0 - The Back should have been now. Just as you did above, Back again, maybe it will drop
  • Dropped to 1.75 - I told you it would go down. Lay
  • Again it went up to 2.25 - Once last Back before he takes it home
  • Again it dropped to 1.50 - Back to the final green or simply don't close your position and wait for the win
  • All the way down to 1.01 - One last Lay just to rest easy even though it is not needed, the match is in the bag.

Trading is just like this. Buy low and sell high or Back high and Lay low. Whatever you want to call it. The idea is to grab the oscillations and take advantage of them to get greens. 

Of course, this worked like a charm because I already knew where the graph was heading. When the match is live we don’t know where the odds will go. And, unfortunately, there is not a single software which can tell you where the odds will end up. It there was one you can be sure that it would be worth millions and the owner wouldn't sell it... 

The job of a trader is to figure out, beforehand, the way things will be going and take advantage of that to bet and make money. Either with techniques, tactics, instinct, experience, tips, candle + prayer, luck, word from a friend, color of the kits, you can find everything out there. 

The most important thing is the EV. EV is everything when you're talking about investment/gain. I can't explain right now what EV is, just google "betting Expected Value" to understand how important it is to make your decisions based on a EV+ view and not based on the result itself. 

Back to the beginning, what you must do is to find a market where it is easy for YOU, as a bettor, to identify these oscillations before they happen. For some that is football, others rely on horse racing, other go for tennis or some other sport or market. 

The easiest road, the one almost everyone follows at first, is betting on a favourite team, waiting for them to score and immediately closing the position. You can go into Portugal's match tomorrow for instance that has a 1.30 odd and drop some cash there. Wait for a Portugal goal, the odd will fall to 1.1 and close it. You're "afraid" that Portugal won't score and you'll lose your entire stake? Drop some money on the 0-0 to make it even. If Iceland scores? Well.... 

The important part is that you understand that there are no infallible tactics. There's no gold egg chicken in betting. Anyone that says they have a 100% method is lying. What we have a lot of are smart bettors and EV based decisions. 

To finish this I'll give you a real example from a friend of mine who pulled a mater trade play that perfectly exemplifies the way a proper trader thinks. 

Some time ago Sporting CP was hosting FC Porto at Lisbon for some competition. Similarly to what has been happening for a while Sporting was playing like a Sunday league team. Porto, as normally was playing really good football and winning almost everytime. On that Sunday and even playing at home Sporting's odd was around 3.75 and Porto was the favourite at 2.50 or something similar. 

The Thursday before Sporting had also played at Alvalade for the UEFA with some English team (Everton I think) and crushed them by 3 or 4 goals. As soon as the match ended that friend of mine went into betfair and placed money on a Sporting win against Porto. On Wednesday and Thursday with all the commotion from the Sporting win everyone was betting on Sporting against Porto. All this money going in made the odd drop hard. By Friday, when it had already dropped by some very significant margin that friend of mine goes into the exchange and Lay Sporting netting himself a big green. Were still 2 days behind the match and already, whatever the result ends up being, he already made money

As you can see there were no softwares behind it. Just simple trading intelligence. On a totally "unrelated" event he predicted an odd oscillation and took advantage of it to make money.

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