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Trading technique: Lay the Draw


Trading technique: Lay the Draw
The "Lay the draw" technique is highly recommended for new Betfair football traders.
It is more appropriate for new bettors because it involves a single pair of bets, one before match start and another right after the 1st goal.

It is a trading technique that is not affected by TV transmission delay because it does not require aggressive entries and exits of the market. We can call it a long term technique.


How does it work?

 We place a Lay the draw bet before the match starts.
 We close our trade, Backing the draw after the 1st goal.


Expected profit:

The expected profit will depend on the match and the minute on which the goal is scored by the favorite team. For instance if the Lay is @4.00 and the back is @7.00, we will have a 13.5% profit with this technique:

formula rentabilidade trade lay-back com hedging

In Fórmulas úteis no Trading de Apostas Desportivas


Choosing the match:

To be able to apply this technique we must choose matches where we expect the favorite team to score first.

Scenario analysis:

Using BetAngel's odd predictions (Soccer Mystic functionality), I calculated the variation of the draw odd of both teams at 10’ and 80’. I also simulated how much our loss would be if, at half time, we still had 0-0 on the board.

I ran these 5 scenarios for 2 different matches:

  • a match with balanced odds, initial draw odd @3.85
  • a match with a clear favorite, initial draw odd @7.00

Lay the draw technique results:

1º goal Balanced match Clear favourite match
Favourite at 10’
Underdog at 10’
0-0 at half-time
Favourite at 80’
Underdog at 80’

We can conclude that this technique has better results on balanced matches with high probability of goals being scored.


Risks:

There is the risk that you will not be able to close our position with profits if a second goal is scored right after the second, you may not have the time to close the trade or the market might not even reopen between goals.

If until half time the 0-0 stands and, for instance, the draw odd that started @4.00 is now @2.70, we will have accumulated an average loss of 15% of our responsibility. By this time some people recommend that you should just assume the red because your loss is almost the same as your expected profit, that is, 1 of these reds is re-winnable with our next green.

The success of this tactic depends on the adaptation of our risk profile and the correct analysis and choice of the matches on which we will apply it. It is an excellent starting technique but should be improved on by each one.


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