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Trading tecnique: "Lay Under" on the first minutes of the match


Trading tecnique: "Lay Under" on the first minutes of the match
The "Lay Under" technique is just another idea on how to take advantage of your reading of the match and your forecast about key match moments.

The "Lay Under" technique is not fit for all punters because it is based on trading against the market, that is, if you apply this technique you will see your profit decrease as time goes by and you will only win if a goal is scored within the first minutes.

Goal markets behaviour throughout time is easy to predict: the Under odd decreases and the Over odd rises.

lay-under-mov-natural
 

There are techniques that recommend Back Under in the beginning of the match to take advantage of the market drop while there are no goals. But in this article I suggest the opposite approach: Lay Under when we expect goals (open game, probable goal by any of the teams) in the first minutes of the match.

It's a technique that is not affected by broadcast delay because it doesn't require aggressive opening and closing of market positions. It simply consists of placing a pair of bets to get in and out of the market.


How does it work?

You Lay on any Under x,5 Goals market, in the example used in this article it's the Under 5,5 Goals market, before the game begins.

You close the trade with Back on Under x,5 Goals after the first goal, if it happens within the first 15 minutes.

Or you close the trade with Back on Under x,5 Goals if no goal is scored within this period, assuming the loss and hedging.


Expected Profit:

Expected profit depends on the match and minute of the first goal. It also depends on which x,5 Goals market you chose to apply this technique and on the initial odds of the market. You get more profit from low initial odds (which means the market is not expecting many goals).

The examples of this article show that you can have profits ranging from 34% to 189% with this technique.

How to calculate ROI (Return On Investment):
formula rentabilidade trade lay-back com hedging

In Useful formulas for Sports Betting Trading


Choose a match:

To apply this technique you must choose matches in which you expect goals to happen in the first 15 minutes. The sooner the goal happens, the higher the profit.

It doesn't matter which team scores first: matches in which both teams are expected to play offensively, or at least one of them, are the best to insure early goals.

Second leg matches in which a team needs to recover from a first leg loss are good candidates, because such teams usually start the game offensively to try to score early.

You should also choose matches in which the markets don´t predict many goals, that is, in which the Under 2,5 Goals odd is lower than 2.00.


Scenario analysis:

Using BetAngel's odd prediction function (Soccer Mystic), I analysed two scenarios: closing the trade with losses after 15 minutes with no goals and closing with profit with a goal after 10 minutes (a goal sooner in the game will generate even higher profit). The analysis included Over/Under markets from 1,5 to 5,5 Goals.

I also analysed 2 different matches:

  • A match with few goals expected: odd Under 2,5 @1.62 (<2.00)
  • A match with many goals expected: odd Under 2,5 @2.90 (>2.00)

I concluded that the best games for this technique are those with few goals expected, that is, with low Under odds at the beginning of the game.


Take a look at the first example with the Under 2,5 Goals initial odd bellow 2:

lay-under-graficos-odd2.5baixa
 
  Close with loss 15 min
  Under 5,5 Under 4,5 Under 3,5 Under 2,5 Under 1,5
1st odd: lay odd  1.02 1.08 1.23 1.62 2.84
2nd odd: back odd  1.01 1.04 1.15 1.43 2.32
ROI -50% -48% -30% -21% -12%

  Close with profit 10 min
  Under 5,5 Under 4,5 Under 3,5 Under 2,5 Under 1,5
1st odd: lay odd 1.02 1.08 1.23 1.62 2.84
2nd odd: back odd 1.06 1.17 1.49 2.54 7.6
ROI 189% 96% 76% 58% 34%

In this example it's easy to see that the best strategy is to apply this technique on the Under 5,5 Goals market.

In this particular case, we need to ensure, by analysing stats and news, that at least in 26% (=50%/189%) of these matches a goal wil happen in the first 15 minutes (note that I used a conservative estimate of a 10 minute goal).

In other words, if at least 3 out of every 10 matches have a goal within the first 15 minutes, this trading technique can provide profits.


Now take a look at the second example with an Under 2,5 Goals initial odd above 2:

lay-under-graficos-odd2.5alta
 
  Close with loss 15 min
  Under 5,5 Under 4,5 Under 3,5 Under 2,5 Under 1,5
1st odd: lay odd 1.14 1.34 1.79 2.9 7
2nd odd: back odd 1.06 1.17 1.46 2.2 4.3
ROI -54% -43% -29% -17% -10%

  Close with profit 10 min Goal
  Under 5,5 Under 4,5 Under 3,5 Under 2,5 Under 1,5
1st odd: lay odd 1.14 1.34 1.79 2.9 7
2nd odd: back odd 1.22 1.54 2.36 5 19.5
ROI 47% 38% 31% 22% 11%

It's obvious that it isn't a good idea to use this technique with an Under 2,5 Goals initial odd above 2 and also that the best loss/profit ratio for these matches is for the Under 2,5 Goals market.


Hazards:

Once again, I remind you that this technique works against time and the market. Therefore, before reaching a profit you will see your loses rise as time goes by with no goals.

This technique is just another idea on how to take advantage of your predictions for a match, particularly when goals will happen.

Each match is different, so this is not a good technique to use with all matches. It will not ensure profits in every game or long term winnings. It's the ability to predict when goals will happen that ensures profit, this is just another technique to take advantage of that.

Success with this technique depends on how it adapts to your risk taking profile and on the ability to choose the best matches to apply it.
 

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